← Eredivisie 2011-12 · Fri, Mar 23, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 44% | 55% | 2.10 | value: +16% |
| SBV Excelsior win | 29% | 23% | 3.30 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 21% | 3.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SBV Excelsior | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 266.00 | 3461.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1363.08 | 1494.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.61 | -30.56 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| league points | 18.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 0.69 | 1.23 |
| state index | -0.60 | -0.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.00 |