← Eredivisie 2011-12 · Sun, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 62% | 63% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 22% | 4.50 | fair |
| SC Heerenveen win | 17% | 15% | 5.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PSV | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 626.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1695.69 | 1615.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -61.95 | 14.65 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.64 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.55 |
| league points | 48.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.92 | 1.92 |
| state index | 0.05 | 0.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |