← Eredivisie 2011-12 · Sun, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 62% | 60% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 23% | 4.33 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 16% | 17% | 6.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 261.00 | 2087.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1482.38 | 1754.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.25 | 24.68 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 2.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| league points | 28.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 1.96 |
| state index | -0.15 | 1.54 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |