← Eredivisie 2011-12 · Sun, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 77% | 84% | 1.20 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 10% | 7.00 | fair |
| NAC Breda win | 8% | 5% | 11.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 626.00 | 4278.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1673.08 | 1459.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.78 | 20.95 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.87 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| league points | 52.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.08 | 1.12 |
| state index | 0.69 | -0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.00 |