← Eredivisie 2011-12 · Sat, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roda JC win | 46% | 45% | 2.00 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 28% | 31% | 3.50 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.60 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SBV Excelsior | Roda JC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 260.00 | 2451.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1350.06 | 1518.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.48 | -23.53 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 2.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| league points | 15.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.60 | 1.36 |
| state index | -1.15 | -0.46 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |