← Eredivisie 2011-12 · Fri, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 46% | 48% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 32% | 3.50 | value: +11% |
| Heracles win | 26% | 20% | 3.60 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 259.00 | 624.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1521.81 | 1543.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.29 | -25.59 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| league points | 38.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.52 | 1.20 |
| state index | -0.03 | -0.51 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |