← Eredivisie 2011-12 · Sun, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 53% | 56% | 1.83 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 25% | 21% | 3.75 | fair |
| NEC win | 22% | 22% | 4.33 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 254.00 | 70.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1493.95 | 1779.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.85 | 23.53 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 2.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 2.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.55 |
| league points | 27.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 2.09 |
| state index | -0.13 | 1.48 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |