← Eredivisie 2011-12 · Sun, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 60% | 56% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 27% | 4.20 | value: +12% |
| NAC Breda win | 17% | 17% | 6.00 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 4271.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1458.90 | 1744.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.53 | -43.12 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| league points | 25.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 2.00 |
| state index | -0.25 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |