← Eredivisie 2011-12 · Sat, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 64% | 67% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 19% | 4.33 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 14% | 13% | 7.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 618.00 | 253.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1563.71 | 1484.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.51 | -31.95 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.08 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| league points | 30.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.04 |
| state index | 0.10 | -1.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |