← Eredivisie 2011-12 · Sat, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 80% | 84% | 1.18 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 10% | 7.00 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 7% | 5% | 13.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | SBV Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 618.00 | 253.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1611.56 | 1354.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.56 | 0.74 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.20 |
| league points | 45.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.88 | 0.63 |
| state index | 0.67 | -1.04 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.20 |