← Eredivisie 2011-12 · Sat, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 49% | 51% | 1.91 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.60 | fair |
| Vitesse win | 25% | 23% | 3.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 3448.00 | 253.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1525.55 | 1479.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -51.05 | -11.09 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| league points | 32.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.46 |
| state index | -0.57 | -0.41 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |