← Eredivisie 2011-12 · Sun, Mar 4, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 51% | 49% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.60 | fair |
| FC Twente '65 win | 23% | 25% | 4.33 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 4 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PSV | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 63.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1765.84 | 1783.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.13 | 5.04 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 1.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.55 |
| league points | 48.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.09 | 2.05 |
| state index | 1.08 | 1.43 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |