← Eredivisie 2011-12 · Sun, Mar 4, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 76% | 76% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 17% | 6.00 | fair |
| Roda JC win | 8% | 7% | 13.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | Roda JC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2073.00 | 2438.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1746.10 | 1516.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.75 | -13.65 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 2.04 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| league points | 43.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.87 | 1.35 |
| state index | 0.82 | -0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |