← Eredivisie 2011-12 · Sat, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waalwijk win | 66% | 60% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 23% | 4.50 | value: +5% |
| SBV Excelsior win | 13% | 17% | 8.00 | value: +36% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Waalwijk | SBV Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 246.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1404.31 | 1361.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 55.87 | 0.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| league points | 28.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 0.65 |
| state index | 0.23 | -1.04 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |