← Eredivisie 2011-12 · Sat, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 51% | 46% | 1.83 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 25% | 28% | 4.00 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.80 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 246.00 | 611.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1459.02 | 1614.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -48.18 | 29.44 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.55 |
| league points | 24.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 1.91 |
| state index | -1.21 | 0.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |