← Eredivisie 2011-12 · Sun, Feb 26, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 73% | 82% | 1.29 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 18% | 12% | 5.50 | fair |
| FC Utrecht win | 9% | 7% | 12.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 56.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1755.39 | 1539.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.08 | 41.98 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.20 |
| league points | 42.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.14 |
| state index | 1.15 | 0.39 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |