← Eredivisie 2011-12 · Sun, Feb 26, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 57% | 58% | 1.67 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 21% | 4.20 | fair |
| SC Heerenveen win | 20% | 20% | 5.25 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 605.00 | 605.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1662.17 | 1611.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.32 | 35.56 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.95 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.55 |
| league points | 45.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 2.05 | 1.95 |
| state index | 0.56 | 1.05 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |