← Eredivisie 2011-12 · Sun, Feb 19, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 49% | 52% | 1.91 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.50 | fair |
| Vitesse win | 24% | 24% | 4.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 233.00 | 49.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1513.22 | 1771.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.62 | -16.33 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.87 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 2.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.55 |
| league points | 32.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.52 | 1.95 |
| state index | -0.13 | 1.07 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |