← Eredivisie 2010-11 · Sun, May 15, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 41% | 32% | 2.40 | fair |
| AZ win | 32% | 40% | 3.20 | value: +26% |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 318.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1511.33 | 1670.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -62.13 | -2.41 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.41 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.55 |
| league points | 44.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.79 |
| state index | -0.74 | 0.86 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |