← Eredivisie 2010-11 · Sun, May 1, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roda JC win | 40% | 42% | 2.40 | fair |
| NEC win | 34% | 28% | 2.80 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 30% | 3.75 | value: +14% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | Roda JC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 2130.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1479.30 | 1596.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.85 | 41.26 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.81 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.55 |
| league points | 39.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 1.69 |
| state index | -0.16 | 0.97 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |