← Eredivisie 2010-11 · Sat, Apr 23, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 72% | 82% | 1.29 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 18% | 11% | 5.50 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 10% | 7% | 9.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Willem II Tilburg | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 420.00 | 296.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1283.13 | 1708.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.67 | 23.74 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.55 |
| league points | 12.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.39 | 1.81 |
| state index | -1.70 | 1.14 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |