← Eredivisie 2010-11 · Sat, Apr 23, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roda JC win | 64% | 70% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 19% | 4.50 | fair |
| NAC Breda win | 15% | 11% | 7.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Roda JC | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2122.00 | 3948.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1586.09 | 1477.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.95 | -8.79 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.10 |
| league points | 51.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.65 | 1.23 |
| state index | 0.63 | -0.42 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |