← Eredivisie 2010-11 · Sun, Apr 17, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 54% | 51% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 29% | 3.60 | value: +5% |
| Heracles win | 20% | 20% | 4.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 290.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1565.29 | 1752.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 41.49 | -20.65 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.25 | 1.55 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| league points | 40.00 | 62.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 2.07 |
| state index | 1.01 | 0.72 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |