← Eredivisie 2010-11 · Sun, Apr 17, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 76% | 77% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 19% | 6.50 | value: +23% |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 9% | 4% | 13.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 655.00 | 414.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1598.05 | 1287.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.91 | -15.33 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| league points | 37.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 0.40 |
| state index | 0.60 | -1.55 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |