← Eredivisie 2010-11 · Sat, Apr 16, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 54% | 66% | 1.73 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 25% | 22% | 3.80 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 22% | 12% | 4.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 289.00 | 319.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1700.80 | 1571.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.67 | 37.73 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.75 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.65 |
| league points | 53.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.77 | 1.80 |
| state index | 0.79 | 0.83 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |