← Eredivisie 2010-11 · Sun, Apr 10, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 68% | 74% | 1.36 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 19% | 4.75 | fair |
| FC Groningen win | 12% | 7% | 8.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1744.00 | 3113.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1802.14 | 1586.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.15 | -36.53 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 2.11 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| league points | 58.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.72 |
| state index | 1.64 | -0.15 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |