← Eredivisie 2010-11 · Sat, Apr 9, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 48% | 67% | 1.91 | value: +29% ⚠ |
| Draw | 26% | 17% | 3.60 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 26% | 15% | 3.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Willem II Tilburg | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 406.00 | 282.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1272.14 | 1557.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.22 | 47.28 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 2.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| league points | 12.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.41 | 1.28 |
| state index | -1.01 | 0.75 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |