← Eredivisie 2010-11 · Sun, Apr 3, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 44% | 42% | 2.10 | fair |
| NEC win | 29% | 28% | 3.40 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | NEC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 4110.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1449.16 | 1489.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.70 | 7.01 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| league points | 29.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 15.96 | 14.96 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 1.29 |
| state index | -0.18 | -0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |