← Eredivisie 2010-11 · Sun, Mar 20, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 62% | 85% | 1.50 | value: +27% ⚠ |
| Draw | 24% | 9% | 3.80 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 14% | 6% | 7.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SBV Excelsior | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 627.00 | 292.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1348.93 | 1783.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.15 | -11.67 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| league points | 22.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.81 | 2.11 |
| state index | -0.82 | 0.95 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |