← Eredivisie 2010-11 · Sun, Mar 20, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 50% | 56% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.50 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 24% | 16% | 4.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 292.00 | 1723.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1514.42 | 1784.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.00 | 11.09 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.40 |
| league points | 45.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 2.04 |
| state index | 0.36 | 1.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |