← Eredivisie 2010-11 · Sat, Mar 19, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda win | 40% | 45% | 2.30 | value: +5% |
| FC Groningen win | 33% | 34% | 2.88 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 21% | 3.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 3913.00 | 3091.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1504.36 | 1572.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.53 | -77.99 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 2.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| league points | 34.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 15.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 1.63 |
| state index | -0.54 | -1.09 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |