← Eredivisie 2010-11 · Sat, Mar 19, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 47% | 50% | 1.95 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.50 | fair |
| SC Heerenveen win | 26% | 25% | 3.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 261.00 | 261.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1553.11 | 1501.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 38.89 | -21.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 1.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| league points | 34.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 1.30 |
| state index | 0.87 | -0.55 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |