← Eredivisie 2010-11 · Sun, Mar 13, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 75% | 90% | 1.25 | value: +13% ⚠ |
| Draw | 17% | 6% | 6.00 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 9% | 4% | 11.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Willem II Tilburg | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 379.00 | 1716.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1274.58 | 1782.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.67 | 11.76 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| league points | 11.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.42 | 2.00 |
| state index | -1.09 | 1.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |