← Eredivisie 2010-11 · Sun, Mar 13, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 57% | 64% | 1.67 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.00 | fair |
| NEC win | 19% | 13% | 5.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1476.18 | 1775.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.45 | 4.01 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| league points | 32.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 2.19 |
| state index | -0.24 | 1.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |