← Eredivisie 2010-11 · Sat, Mar 12, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roda JC win | 36% | 29% | 2.70 | fair |
| AZ win | 35% | 38% | 2.63 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 33% | 3.40 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Roda JC | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2080.00 | 254.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1564.14 | 1658.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.01 | -20.09 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 1.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.50 |
| league points | 41.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.58 | 1.65 |
| state index | 0.33 | 0.01 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |