← Eredivisie 2010-11 · Sat, Mar 12, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 68% | 68% | 1.36 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 21% | 4.75 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 12% | 10% | 8.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | SBV Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 254.00 | 619.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1570.97 | 1354.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 42.20 | 12.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.87 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| league points | 31.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 0.85 |
| state index | 1.01 | -0.68 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |