← Eredivisie 2010-11 · Sun, Mar 6, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 59% | 56% | 1.60 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 25% | 4.20 | value: +3% |
| Heracles win | 18% | 19% | 5.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 3078.00 | 248.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1580.03 | 1523.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.44 | 19.92 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 1.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| league points | 44.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.76 | 1.12 |
| state index | 0.03 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |