← Eredivisie 2010-11 · Sun, Feb 27, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 47% | 45% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.50 | fair |
| AFC Ajax win | 26% | 26% | 4.00 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PSV | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1702.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1804.27 | 1796.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.92 | -17.04 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| league points | 53.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.21 | 2.00 |
| state index | 1.65 | 1.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |