← Eredivisie 2010-11 · Sun, Feb 20, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 72% | 80% | 1.33 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 18% | 15% | 5.00 | fair |
| NEC win | 10% | 5% | 10.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | NEC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 264.00 | 461.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1797.16 | 1505.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.44 | 16.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| league points | 50.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 17.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.17 | 1.30 |
| state index | 1.55 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |