← Eredivisie 2010-11 · Sun, Feb 13, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 38% | 35% | 2.50 | fair |
| NAC Breda win | 34% | 34% | 2.80 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.50 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 3879.00 | 227.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1525.89 | 1546.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.02 | 0.51 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.96 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| league points | 31.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.41 | 1.41 |
| state index | -0.34 | 0.09 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |