← Eredivisie 2010-11 · Sat, Feb 12, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 56% | 68% | 1.67 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 26% | 20% | 3.75 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 18% | 12% | 5.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Willem II Tilburg | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 350.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1294.17 | 1605.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.66 | 18.18 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.42 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| league points | 7.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.32 | 1.55 |
| state index | -1.23 | 0.38 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |