← Eredivisie 2010-11 · Sun, Feb 6, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 42% | 36% | 2.30 | fair |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 31% | 41% | 3.00 | value: +22% |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | Feyenoord Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 4054.00 | 585.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1472.63 | 1556.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.23 | -25.54 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| league points | 21.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.95 |
| state index | -0.14 | -0.49 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |