← Eredivisie 2009-10 · Sun, May 2, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 76% | 78% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 16% | 6.25 | fair |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 8% | 6% | 14.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2770.00 | 2497.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1558.06 | 1359.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.90 | -26.84 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.10 |
| league points | 46.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| season ppg | 1.39 | 0.79 |
| state index | -0.08 | -1.72 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.20 |