← Eredivisie 2009-10 · Sun, May 2, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 46% | 46% | 2.05 | fair |
| PSV win | 27% | 22% | 3.60 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 32% | 3.50 | value: +12% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 152.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1700.43 | 1766.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.63 | 2.14 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.71 | 1.60 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.35 |
| league points | 61.00 | 77.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| season ppg | 1.85 | 2.33 |
| state index | 1.37 | 1.07 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |