← Eredivisie 2009-10 · Sun, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 60% | 67% | 1.57 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 23% | 17% | 4.20 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 17% | 16% | 6.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Willem II Tilburg | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 50.00 | 138.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1349.78 | 1694.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.56 | 23.32 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.72 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.55 |
| league points | 23.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 0.72 | 1.81 |
| state index | -1.42 | 1.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |