← Eredivisie 2009-10 · Sun, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 39% | 42% | 2.40 | fair |
| Roda JC win | 33% | 30% | 2.88 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | Roda JC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 3760.00 | 1752.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1437.64 | 1492.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.72 | 17.48 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| league points | 31.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 1.28 |
| state index | -0.40 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |