← Eredivisie 2009-10 · Sun, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 38% | 42% | 2.50 | value: +5% |
| FC Utrecht win | 34% | 35% | 2.70 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 23% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sparta Rotterdam | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2483.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1371.38 | 1538.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.93 | -17.14 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| league points | 26.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 0.81 | 1.53 |
| state index | -1.43 | -0.12 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |