← Eredivisie 2009-10 · Sun, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 70% | 74% | 1.33 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 18% | 5.00 | fair |
| FC Groningen win | 10% | 8% | 9.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PSV | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 2756.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1760.91 | 1563.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.08 | -13.69 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.55 |
| league points | 74.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 2.31 | 1.44 |
| state index | 0.87 | -0.05 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |