← Eredivisie 2009-10 · Sun, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag win | 65% | 67% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 18% | 4.33 | fair |
| Waalwijk win | 14% | 15% | 7.00 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | Waalwijk |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 17.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1392.49 | 1321.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.10 | 0.38 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| league points | 27.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 0.84 | 0.47 |
| state index | -0.74 | -1.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |