← Eredivisie 2009-10 · Sun, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 81% | 79% | 1.17 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 14% | 8.00 | value: +10% |
| Heracles win | 6% | 7% | 19.00 | value: +40% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1387.00 | 291.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1840.44 | 1559.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.99 | 21.95 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.72 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.90 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.35 |
| league points | 79.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 16.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 2.47 | 1.66 |
| state index | 2.13 | 0.54 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |